Israel Faces Stalemate as Neither Leader Secures Knesset Majority

Israeli election results have left the country without a decisive prime ministerial candidate. The outcome in the 120-member Knesset leaves the path to the top office open, forcing party leaders into high-stakes talks to form a governing majority.

Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, both failed to secure the 61 seats required to lead the government. Neither camp holds a majority, creating a political impasse that could extend into next year. Arab-led parties won 19 seats, a historic total that gives them a decisive role in determining the next government.

The most direct path to power appears to be an alliance between Eisenkot and the Arab-led parties. This combination would create a 67-seat coalition directly opposing Netanyahu. Eisenkot could also secure a minority government with their backing. However, this option carries political risk for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies. Israel’s Arab citizens, who comprise 20% of the population, are Palestinians whose families remained in the country after the 1948 war. They maintain close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, leading many Jewish Israelis to view them with suspicion. An Arab party has joined a governing coalition only once, in 2021, and that government lasted approximately 18 months.

Netanyahu is positioning any such alliance as a threat to Israel’s Jewish identity and national security. This narrative puts pressure on Eisenkot’s right-leaning allies to reject the partnership. As an alternative, Netanyahu may attempt to form a unity government with Eisenkot. This arrangement would also yield a 67-seat majority, sending Arab-led, ultranationalist, and ultra-Orthodox factions to the opposition. Such a government could address issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox and stabilize the economy.

This unity scenario requires extensive compromise. Eisenkot and his allies vowed not to serve with Netanyahu after blaming him for the security failures during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. They also accuse him of undermining democratic institutions and point to his ongoing corruption trial. A Netanyahu-led government is unlikely to approve an official inquiry into the October 7 attack, a key demand for opposition voters. Historical precedent suggests that opposition leaders who defy their voters to join Netanyahu often see their political support drop. Netanyahu would also need to drop far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies who supported him through multiple crises.

Netanyahu may also seek to poach defectors from the opposition bloc. He could target right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, who favor nationalist policies such as expanding settlements in the West Bank. These figures would struggle to partner with Arab parties. They have clashed with Netanyahu personally for years and vowed not to partner with him. They also oppose the military exemptions that are a core demand of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies. Eisenkot has fewer options because Netanyahu’s Likud party and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have remained loyal to him.

If neither side secures a majority, Israel may hold new elections early next year. Netanyahu’s government would remain in a caretaker role until then. This scenario could harm Netanyahu’s opponents, who gained momentum from tens of thousands of Israelis who flew in from abroad to vote. They may not travel a second time. Netanyahu would gain time to strengthen his coalition. Smaller right-wing parties that failed to enter parliament likely wasted pro-Netanyahu votes. Their supporters might switch to larger far-right parties, potentially strengthening the prime minister. After a similar stalemate in 2019, Israel held five elections over 3.5 years.