Lula secures fourth term in Brazil, defeating Bolsonaro son by 4.3 million votes

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that remained competitive until the final hours. Results were declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026.

Lula captured 51.79% of the vote, outpacing his opponent by a margin of 48.21%. The gap represented approximately 4.3 million votes among the 159 million eligible voters in the country. Lula characterized the outcome as a defeat for denialism, marking a decisive shift from the first round earlier in the month.

In the initial ballot, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes compared to Lula’s 53.8 million, a difference of 47.03% to 45.16%. No candidate who finished second in the first round has ever won the subsequent runoff since democracy returned to Brazil in 1985. Polls indicated the race tightened sharply in the weeks between the two votes, leaving Bolsonaro ahead by only fractions of a percentage point.

Several factors contributed to Lula’s victory. The first round featured a record abstention rate of 21%, a pattern more common among lower-income voters and Lula-leaning groups. Progressives focused on mobilization efforts, including a WhatsApp channel called Lula's army that distributed daily instructions for making supportive content viral. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok, allowing his digital reach to overtake Bolsonaro’s for the first time.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced challenges from scandals. The magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. The campaign had previously drawn strength from the growth of evangelical Christianity, voter anger over urban crime, and social media presence. A dozen watchdog groups alleged that Meta favored Bolsonaro’s campaign, prompting Brazil’s electoral court to order the company not to give candidates unequal treatment. Meta called those allegations false and unfounded.

International dynamics also influenced the race. President Donald Trump, who called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a witch-hunt, imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a defender against what he described as Trump’s colonial designs while pursuing a multilateral foreign policy. He balanced relations with the United States, China, and Russia, and declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The election outcome carries implications for environmental policy. Under Lula, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by more than 70%, with his government cracking down on illegal mining and supporting Indigenous communities. Guardian Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips noted that the environment featured prominently only in the final presidential debate, as voters focused on the economy, public security, and culture war issues.

Lula will work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of rightwing politicians hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental causes. Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede, citing the decision to extend voting by two hours. He stated it was impossible to concede the election result, though both sides had requested the extension for different reasons.

Phillips does not expect the challenge to succeed, noting that world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s win. Phillips suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. While violence from supporters remains possible, Phillips believes Bolsonaro’s political career is over. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.