Brewers One Win From First Title, Rays Fight to Force Game 6

The Milwaukee Brewers are one victory away from their first World Series championship. They host the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 on Wednesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

The Rays won Tuesday night in 12 innings, beating Milwaukee 4-3 to cut the series deficit to 3-1. That victory kept Tampa Bay alive in the best-of-seven contest. The Brewers entered the postseason as the regular season leaders with a 103-59 record. The Rays finished with a 98-64 mark.

Jacob Misiorowski is expected to start for Milwaukee. He posted a 1.80 earned run average and a 16-5 record during the regular season. The Rays have not officially confirmed their rotation, but Drew Rasmussen is the likely option. Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA this year.

Bookmakers favor the visitors. The money line lists Milwaukee at -154, meaning a bettor must risk $154 to gain $100. Tampa Bay is priced at +128. The total runs line is set at 6.5.

SportsLine’s computer model, which simulates games 10,000 times, projects 8.4 total runs. The Over hit in 69% of those simulations. The model entered the World Series with a 32-25 record on its top money line picks, generating over $1,000 for a $100 wager.

Recent data supports the high scoring projection. The Over landed in four of the last six meetings between these teams. It has gone 5-2 in Milwaukee’s last seven games and 4-3 in Tampa Bay’s last seven. At home, the Rays see the Over hit 8-5-2 when the line is 7.0 or lower.

The model identifies specific hitters likely to contribute to the total. Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers of the Brewers are projected for at least 1.5 total bases. Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda of the Rays are each expected to reach at least 1.4. A Brewers win ends the series. A Rays win forces the series back to Milwaukee for Game 6.