Iran War Drives 8-Point Drop in Trump Approval as Midterm Race Tightens

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, a drop of eight points since the start of the war in Iran, according to a new national poll. This decline coincides with a widening Democratic lead on the generic ballot for the U.S. House, where Democrats now hold an 11-point advantage. The shift reflects a growing frustration among independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who are increasingly leaning toward the opposition in these November midterms.

The conflict with Iran, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in February, has reshaped the political landscape. In the latest survey, four out of six top issues driving voter concern are tied directly to the war. Inflation tops the list at 85%, followed by gas prices at 83%. Voters also expressed concern about government leadership at 79% and the war itself at 75%. Democrats currently hold the edge on all four issues, with leads ranging from nine points on foreign policy to 16 points on inflation.

Despite these national headwinds, the Senate race remains a tight contest. Trump won seven of the ten key battleground states in the 2024 election, including Ohio, Texas, and South Carolina. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown leads incumbent Jon Husted by five points, a margin that has held across three polls this year. Husted has found it difficult to attack Brown on ideological grounds given the state’s deep familiarity with the former Democrat.

South Carolina and Mississippi represent other critical shifts. South Carolina has moved from a likely Republican hold to a lean Republican status, a change driven by the lack of general election experience for incumbent Darline Graham. In Mississippi, the race between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Scott Colom has become more competitive, with protein choice emerging as a major flashpoint. The movement in these states suggests the outcome may hinge on turnout and undecided voters in rural areas.

The forecast for the U.S. House favors Democrats, with a projected floor of 223 seats. Republicans currently hold 195 seats in the model, leaving them short of a majority even in a best-case scenario. Nineteen more districts have shifted toward the Democrats this week, driven by erosion in rural support and strong performance on national issues. Kentucky’s 6th district, a former Trump stronghold, is now considered a toss-up due to changing voter demographics and economic pressures.

In Ohio, the gubernatorial race has also moved toward the Democrats. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy in most high-quality polls since September, despite a recent advertising controversy involving Acton’s mother. Ramaswamy’s campaign ran a commercial featuring the mother calling Acton a liar, a move that drew mixed reactions from Republican leaders. The shift in the governor’s race mirrors the broader trend of Democratic gains in the state, where Brown’s Senate lead and Acton’s gubernatorial edge create a challenging environment for the GOP.

The final power rankings for the 2026 midterms show three shifts in the Senate and 19 in the House. Democrats are favored in 48 Senate seats, while Republicans hold 47. With seven days until the election, the outcome will depend on how undecided voters in key states break and whether Republicans can maintain turnout in states they won by double-digit margins in 2024.