Twelve House Races Split Forecaster Predictions

Twelve U.S. House races show conflicting predictions from major election forecasters as of Nov. 3. A review of ratings from ten reputable sources identified these contests where analysts disagree on the likely winner. The remaining 423 districts have consistent assessments across the board.

The disputed races include Alabama’s 2nd, Colorado’s 5th, Kentucky’s 6th, Michigan’s 10th, New York’s 17th, Ohio’s 7th, Pennsylvania’s 1st, Texas’ 15th and 35th, Virginia’s 1st and 5th, and Wisconsin’s 1st. For Cuyahoga County voters, the Ohio 7th District is a key area of contention. The district includes parts of the county and is currently represented by Republican Max Miller. He is facing Democrat Brian Poindexter in the general election.

Forecasters are divided on the outcome in Ohio’s 7th. Race to the WH rates the contest as Tilt Republican. Inside Elections rates it as Tilt Democratic. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Split Ticket label the race as Lean Democratic. Silver Bulletin’s model rates it as Likely Democratic. The other five forecasters in the group call the race a toss-up. This spread of opinions makes the district one of the twelve with no consensus among the major models.

Other states show similar splits. In Alabama’s 2nd District, Sabato’s Crystal Ball favors Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures. Split Ticket calls it a toss-up. The other eight forecasters back Republican Rhett Marques. In Colorado’s 5th, opinions are split between Democratic candidate Jessica Killin and Republican incumbent Jeff Crank. Five models call it a toss-up, while others favor either party with varying confidence levels.

In Michigan’s 10th District, five forecasters lean toward Democrat Christina Hines. One model, Inside Elections, favors Republican Michael Bouchard. Four others call it a toss-up. New York’s 17th District sees seven models favoring Democrat Cait Conley. One model favors Republican incumbent Mike Lawler. Two models, including Cook Political Report, call it a toss-up.

Pennsylvania’s 1st District features Democrat Bob Harvie challenging Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. The Economist rates the race Likely Republican. Two models lean Democratic, and one rates it Likely Democratic. Six models call it a toss-up. In Texas, the 15th District sees a split between Democrat Bobby Pulido and Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. Three models lean Democratic, one tilts Democratic, and one leans Republican. Five call it a toss-up.

The 35th District in Texas pits Democrat Johnny Garcia against Republican Carlos De La Cruz. Two models lean Democratic, one rates it Likely Republican, and seven call it a toss-up. In Virginia’s 1st District, three models favor Democrat Shannon Taylor over Republican incumbent Rob Wittman. Three models favor Wittman with different confidence levels. Four call it a toss-up.

Virginia’s 5th District shows the clearest partisan split. Nine forecasters favor Republican incumbent John McGuire III. Only one model, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, leans toward Democrat Tom Perriello. Two models rate the race Likely or Very Likely Republican. In Wisconsin’s 1st District, five models favor Republican incumbent Bryan Steil. One model favors Democrat Mitchell Berman. Three call it a toss-up.

The analysis covers ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, and The Economist. The data reflects assessments as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 3. Of the 435 total House seats, 182 are rated Safe or Solid Democratic. Another 31 are consistently pro-Democratic but not at the Safe or Solid level.

On the Republican side, 108 seats are rated Safe or Solid. Another 72 are consistently pro-Republican. Thirty races have at least one toss-up rating but no disagreement on the favored party. Seventeen of those favor Democrats, and thirteen favor Republicans. These ratings are based on polling and fundamental assumptions, not guaranteed outcomes.