GOP races to South Texas and Deep South as 2024 support erodes

Cleveland, Ohio. With voters heading to the polls on Tuesday, Republican leaders are launching a final campaign push in South Texas and the Deep South. The effort aims to secure votes from Black and Latino communities where support for the party has waned since the 2024 elections.

New polling data indicates a shift in the coalition that elected President Donald Trump two years ago. A POLITICO Poll conducted by PF Global found that roughly 9% of voters who supported Trump in 2024 plan to cast their ballots for a Democrat this year. In contrast, only about 2% of former Vice President Kamala Harris’s voters now plan to vote for a Republican. Similar trends have appeared in recent surveys from NBC, ABC, and Pew Research.

The decline is driven primarily by lower enthusiasm among two key groups: Latino voters and young people. At the end of last year, 56% of Hispanic Trump voters identified as MAGA Republicans. By this October, that number had fallen to 37%. This drop reflects growing frustration with the label, which many associate with the president’s most loyal base.

Young voters are also less committed to showing up. In late 2024, 50% of Trump supporters ages 20 to 29 said they were certain to vote. As of October, only 38% of that demographic expressed the same certainty. The drop in confidence has raised concerns among campaign strategists about turnout levels.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is making a final campaign swing through South Texas on Tuesday. Republican officials in the region are working to address Hispanic voters’ concerns about mass deportations and the state of the economy. They are also focusing on the impact of lingering inflation and high prices, which they believe are affecting working-class voters of all races.

The party is pouring millions of dollars into southern states with large Black populations, including Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana. These areas are seeing a surge in voter turnout, prompting officials to shore up their support there. Campaign staff are particularly worried about young men, a group they fear may not show up to the polls in sufficient numbers.

The strategy comes after several years of political messaging that emphasized immigration and cultural issues. Republicans have sought to define their identity through opposition to diversity initiatives and have used gerrymandering as a tool to manage voting power. Now, they are seeking to reclaim the marginal gains they made with Black and Latino voters in 2024.

Despite the challenges, the party maintains a strong base among white voters. Recent canvassing efforts suggest many supporters remain engaged, even if their understanding of policy terms like socialism or communism is limited. Most get their news from right-wing outlets, which leads them to accept administration reports at face value. As the day progresses, every vote counts in determining the final outcome.