Young Israelis May Decide 12 Knesset Seats in Tuesday Vote

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, with a demographic shift poised to influence the outcome. The election hinges on the voting behavior of 640,000 first-time voters aged 18 to 22. These new citizens constitute nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choices could determine the fate of as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that turnout among this group will be high. In a May survey of prospective Jewish and Arab first-time voters, 80% to 95% said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, and another 19% believed they would.

These figures contrast with youth participation in other nations. The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reported a 47% turnout for young voters in the 2024 US presidential election. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. She said that if turnout remains high, as their research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference.

The political leanings of these young voters are mixed. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right. Conversely, 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% said they would vote for Yair Golan’s party, the Democrats, or Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, while 14% supported Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections at high schools showed most students backing Yashar and Beyachad, a party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

National security and the cost of living rank as the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab youth. Hoffman stated that these issues are prominent because this generation lived through the Oct. 7 attacks and witnessed judicial reform protests during their school years. She described them as worried about their future. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, of Ramat Hasharon, said she is voting to change the future of the country. She is in an army preparation program in the Negev and plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar, both of which aim to remove Netanyahu from power.

Netanyahu has led the government since 2009, with a brief break in 2021 and 2022. The opposition change bloc seeks to end his tenure. Not all young voters align with the opposition. Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to back the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He supports the party’s policies in the West Bank and said, “We need a strong, secure Israel.”

Other young voters focus on specific policy goals. Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herzliyah, will vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to mandate military service for ultra-Orthodox men and to lower living costs. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M under IDF anonymity rules, cited economic factors as his primary reason for voting. He plans to support the Democrats due to the high costs of tuition, books, food, and housing.

Arab voters are also engaged in the process. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, is urging friends to vote. He wants an Arab party that will close resource gaps in Arab communities and tackle crime. Sabeh stated that he will not leave the country regardless of the election result, describing it as his land and his home.